Emerald | On the Horizon | Table of Contents

Death by a Thousand Cuts

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Tom Abeles) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Not available.

Defending the Future

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Richard A. Slaughter) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Purpose - Introductory Overview of a Special Issue of On the Horizon on Responses to The Biggest Wake-Up Call in HistoryDesign/methodology/approach - A primary objective in writing The Biggest Wake-Up Call in History (BWCH) (Slaughter, 2010) was to bring as much clarity as possible to some of the complex, multi-layered and profoundly challenging issues that face our world today. A second objective was to establish if there were, in fact, viable ways forward beyond what I saw as an increasingly compromised present, pathways that lead towards more humanly compelling futures. Findings - While the outlook might initially appear very bleak, there are real and substantive grounds for informed hope and effective action.Originality/value - A fresh look at a problem.

Waking up in the 21st Century

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Chris Riedy) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Purpose - This paper explores metaphors of human awakening in four recent futures works and proposes a research agenda on the nature and future trajectories of awakening.Design/methodology/approach - The paper reviews metaphors of awakening in Slaughter’s ‘The Biggest Wake Up Call in History’, the Great Transition Initiative, Gilding’s ‘The Great Disruption’ and Inayatullah’s Waking Up to the Future. It identifies seven characteristics of awakening and uses these to create an environmental scanning framework. It reports on a preliminary application of the framework and proposes a future research agenda.Findings - The paper identifies seven signals of awakening: futures literacy, shifting values, activism, collective agency, engaged dialogue, distributed leadership and inspiring visions. While evidence for most of these signals can be found, it is often weak and dominated by other trends. Research limitations/implications - The environmental scanning framework needs to be expanded using additional literature and testing. The question of when confrontation with apocalyptic future images can deliver positive outcomes remains unresolved.Practical implications - Perhaps the single most important thing that could be done to help rouse sleeping humanity is to begin to make connections between the diverse movements identified in the paper and to see them as pieces of the larger puzzle of how we wake up. Maybe an ‘awakening movement’ could provide a common goal in the 21st century. Originality/value - The paper is an original exploration of the metaphor of awakening in four prominent works on sustainable futures. It will have value to foresight practitioners and change agents that are building movements for sustainable futures.

Shifting Values: Hope and Concern for "Waking Up"

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Andy Hines) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Purpose - This paper takes up the challenge of Slaughter’s "Biggest Wakeup Call in History" to look for solution in the interior aspects of the Integral perspective by focusing on long-term patterns of changing values in individual interior (the upper-left "intentional" quadrant of the Integral matrix). Design/methodology/approach - The paper applies the author’s research on long-term patterns in individual values changes. It takes a developmental perspective suggesting a consistent direction of change in individual values, drawing on an analysis of twenty values systems described in the literature. Findings - The findings suggest that the long-term values changes offer both hope and concern for addressing the global emergency. The hope comes from development in postmodern and integral values, suggesting that the rise of postmodern values could lead to greater awareness of the global emergency and that the rise of integral values in particular could lead greater action in addressing it. A concern is that modern values suggest priorities reinforcing the trends and developments, such as massive rise in consumption, driving the global emergency and that these values are increasingly prevalent in the emerging markets that make up the largest share of the global population. Research limitations/implications - The most important area for further research would be to develop an accurate measure of the prevalence of the types of values present in the world today. Originality/value - The synthesis of research on long-term pattern in values shifts and its application to global emergency discussion adds an element of richness to the discussion of the role of interior aspects of the integral perspective. Futurists and others concerned with the global emergency will have greater insight into the need to deal with the spread of modern values in the emerging markets, as well as greater insight into the need to cultivate the spread of postmodern and integral values and enlist the support of those having those values in working on solutions to the global emergency.

Migration and the False Promise of Growth

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Matti Johannes Heinonen) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to analyse interaction between the economic growth and population explosion on migration and impending global crises, resulting from a congruence of the ills affecting the world today, including climate change, water and food scarcity, poverty and environmental degradation. Design/methodology/approach - Comparative analysis of future oriented literature. The paper applies the "Limits to Growth" thinking and suggests an approach where the concept of material and population growth is questioned.Findings - Multidisciplinary examination of research literature reveals what we normally consider to be problems such as energy, food and water scarcity, poverty and environmental degradation really are not problems but symptoms; the problem is the continuing economic and population growth on a finite planet. Migration has always been a possible coping strategy for people facing economic and political problems as well as environmental changes. Continuing growth has not erased poverty and closed the gap between the rich and poor, which is a major driving force of migration. Only changing the structure of the system will do that.Research limitations/implications - Practical implications - Humanity has set the scene for the overshoot scenario and reversal of growth will be necessary to get us out of it. We need new kinds of methods to respond to the current challenges. It is imperative to reinvent economic theories and create new monetary and fiscal policies to solve the multidimensional ecological, economic, demographic, political and social crises humanity is facing today.Originality/value - In a world where the lack of foresight exists to an alarming degree at every level of society, it is important to constantly remind the imminent global crises resulting from growth. It is becoming apparent that fragmented strategies cannot address the pressing challenges. New values are needed to guide us to peaceful and equitable development in an increasingly interconnected world. They can only emerge from a new critical self-awareness and the will to act.

Communicating Overshoot and Collapse: Based on a review of Richard A. Slaughter’s "The Biggest Wake-up Call in History"

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (James Breaux) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this review is to look at the communications strategy of the wake up call suggested by Slaughter and to explore alternatives and other perspectives on its transmissions and receptions.Design/methodology/approach - This review uses a topical literature survey and synthesis method to critique conventional vs. integral-type communications strategies and suggests alternatives.Findings - Communications are tricky. The alignment of the sender and receiver are crucial and can be improved or degraded depending on the contextual framework of each as well as the perceived agency and interaction of the sender/receiver actors.Research limitations/implications - This work was accomplished from the single viewpoint of the author with literature references and a US-centric, western bias.Practical implications - The discussion about the variety of communication stratagem from the perspective of the receiver and, the context of the message as well as the motivation of the sender may provoke changes which in turn could allow greater chance for success in establishing a glide path to sustainability.Originality/value - This work is referenced to highlight the work of others including the author of the book reviewed. The synthesis and suggested communications approach is original to the author of the paper.

Towards an Integral Futures Vision

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Terry Collins) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Purpose - There are many challenges to be addressed in today’s world. Futurists have a process, methods and skills to submit to a positive advancement of these challenges, which is this paper’s purpose.Design/methodology/approach - The approach is the author’s synthesis and reflection of the more positive aspects of addressing the problems facing contemporary society.Findings - Integral theory and other disciplines are helpful in the holistic approach to coping and problem solving of overshoot and collapse.Originality/value - When futurist practitioners practice the approach of foresight planning, the viewpoint examined here is that the vision exercise should be placed at the beginning of the process. The priority of the visioning activity should include an inquiry of what wants to emerge from the "evolutionary integral future." This consideration widens the perspective to include the well-being of the whole ecosystem with the possible benefits of resilience, waking up, growing up, and showing up.

Energy, complexity and interior development in civilisational renewal

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Joshua Floyd) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Purpose - Slaughter has proposed futures in which interior human development matches that of technological development as our best prospect for avoiding catastrophic collapse through overshoot of the Earth’s carrying capacity. The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of the primary energy resource context in making sense of the prospects for such futures, and to consider how subtle changes to our conceptual models for understanding the nature of human development can offer alternate pathways for proceeding in light of the fundamental limits this imposes.Design/methodology/approach - Conceptual models for the relationship between energy and social complexity are reviewed, and proposals for connecting social complexity with interior human development are discussed. Popular models of interior human development are critiqued in light of recent clarifications relating to Integral Theory; specific reconceptualisations are proposed.Findings - Technological and interior human development are intimately linked. There are important interdependencies between energy and social complexity that must be taken into account in establishing expectations for the way that these realms might evolve together. This presents significant challenges for realising on a society-wide scale development of the nature commonly associated with Integral Theory. However, alternative ways of conceptualising such development offer fresh opportunities for confronting the spectre of environmental and social breakdown.Originality/value - The implications of models relating social complexity and resource context are extended to questions of human interior development; the unit of development is extended from the individual in relative isolation to the organism-in-environment.

Framing and reframing the emerging ‘planetary crisis’: A plea to avoid, and for increasing critique of, neoenvironmental determinism

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Stephen Daniel McGrail) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Purpose - The paper takes up and contributes to understanding an important emerging theme in recent literature on global environmental change and socio-ecological issues (including Slaughter’s The Biggest Wake-up Call in History): "positive reframing". The paper also aims to deepen consideration of the potential for "overshoot and collapse" futures and related concerns by foresight practitioners.Design/methodology/approach - The paper is based on, and presents, a thematic analytical literature review.Findings - Four underlying drivers of increased reframing and four central themes in positive reframes are identified; Mental ‘frames’ informing and limiting foresight work need to be openly communicated and reflected on – such practitioner reflexivity is often missing in foresight work, such as in The Biggest Wake-up Call in History by Richard Slaughter.Research limitations/implications - N/A (literature review)Practical implications - The paper includes discussion of the implications for futures practice, including the role of mental frames and reframing. I suggest futures practitioners can play important new roles in challenging the recent re-emergence of influential forms of environmental determinism and foresight practitioners need to be more wary of the potential for ‘narrative bias’.Originality/value - The paper helps to deepen the consideration of ‘re-framing’ and environmental limits by foresight practitioners and theorists. In doing so the paper also brings in new concepts from other fields (such as cognitive psychology and Science and Technology Studies) into the foresight/futures field.

Structural Criminality within the "Collective Shadow": Disaster Capitalism and the Globalization of Ruling Power

literatinetwork@emeraldinsight.com (Dennis Morgan) — Fri, 09 Aug 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Abstract

Not available.